Europe Economics Update Catalan cloud could rain on Spain This weekend’s regional election could put Catalonia on a course towards secession, casting a cloudover Spain’s recovery and galvanising other independent-minded regions of the euro-zone 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese imports ease in August, but after a strong July The detailed Chinese import data show an easing of demand for many agricultural commodities in August. However, the bigger picture is that demand remains robust. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices still have further to fall We think that coal prices will probably continue to decline over the next few years as demand is diminished by competing fuels and environmental concerns, especially in China. In addition, supply... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brazilian real hits 4/$, unlikely to snap back We think that the sell-off in the Brazilian real has been overdone to some degree. But whereas a decline to around 4/$ in 2003 was subsequently followed by a period of rapid appreciation, several... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) Barring an unexpected jump in prices over the coming weeks, data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation in Brazil is on course to drop back in September. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC slowly taking a more hawkish line The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates on hold today, but tweaks to its policy framework and to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is (slowly) taking a more hawkish... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth fears at odds with stronger activity data Many remain worried that China is in the midst of a deepening economic crisis, particularly after the US Fed voiced its concerns last week. But these fears are overblown. Our updated China Activity... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are troubles in emerging markets a third leg of the global crisis? Many commentators, including the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, have suggested that the turmoil in emerging markets (EMs) over the last few months is just the latest phase of the global financial... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are the wages data misleading us? Some BoJ Board Members have cast doubt on the accuracy of the monthly wage data, which show tepid income growth. By contrast, we think these figures reflect the circumstances of Japan’s workers fairly... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) After three months of gains, subdued mortgage lending and low inventory levels meant existing home sales fell back in August. Those factors will weigh on sales in the short term, but as lending... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the global financial crisis about to enter a third stage? 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Economic Activity Indicator (Jul.) Brazil’s Economic Activity Indicator for July suggests that GDP fell at an even faster pace at the start of Q3 than in Q2. But there are some early signs that the slump may be close to bottoming out. 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
