Europe Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small rise in the German Ifo index in September came as a modestly pleasant surprise in light of the recent softening in some other business surveys. But the China slowdown and VW scandal present... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate cut likely With recent activity data weak and inflation low, the consensus has swung around to our long-held view that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates again this year, with the upcoming meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery marks its 2-year anniversary The upswing in the rental recovery continues to strengthen. But, offsetting this, the contribution of yield impact is steadily is steadily fading and capital value growth is slowing. But with few... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today’s flash PMI suggests that activity in the manufacturing sector remained healthy in September. But the sharp slowdown in external demand and a moderation in price pressures are worrying. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Exporters in emerging Asia and US still struggling The volume of world trade, which has been sluggish all year, fell outright in July. The latest weakness has been concentrated in emerging economies, and Asia in particular, but exports from the US... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in a fiscal hole, but default fears overdone Brazil’s public finances are in a mess, but mounting fears of a sovereign default are overdone. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell and gasoline stocks increased in the US last week, despite a fall back in refinery rates and a jump in demand for oil products. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today have added to concerns that China’s economy is slowing, but the latest activity data, which are more reliable, have been more encouraging. Meanwhile, growth... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM equity markets suffer most at the hands of China? Emerging market equities have suffered heavy losses from the recent bout of risk aversion that has been “Made in China”, particularly those in commodity-exporting countries. But with the economy... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB holds rates, slashes growth forecasts A string of grim growth figures led South Africa’s MPC to pause its gradual tightening cycle today. We had expected a hike at this meeting, and still think that accelerating inflation and a... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How strong are the main regional office markets? In mid-2015, capital value growth in the Rest of the UK office market was roughly half that seen in the South East or London. Yet Manchester and Birmingham are delivering rather stronger rates of... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How does Italian private debt compare to public debt Italy’s public debt load is worryingly high, but private sector debt is much less of a concern. This provides some grounds for optimism that a recovery in the private sector which increases the size... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
