Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Sep. – 16th Sep.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugar cane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was severely disrupted by rain in the first half of... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) New home sales are finally building momentum, and are up by over 18% since June. While low levels of inventory suggest the pace of growth will slow, early evidence that mortgage applications for house... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portuguese election concerns unlikely to dampen retail prospects Political factors pose less risk to the economic outlook in Portugal than in Spain. Nevertheless, the underlying economic outlook for Portugal is weaker, which will weigh on occupier demand in Lisbon... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities shrug off corruption investigation In a mixed month for the MENA region’s equity markets, Egypt’s EGX30 proved to be the best performer despite the launch of a corruption investigation within the cabinet. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow… but that’s okay Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Jul.) & Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Growth slows Mexico’s IGAE Activity Indicator for July was weak and is the first sign that the economic slowdown continued into Q3. Better news came from today’s inflation data, which showed that the headline rate... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 2.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in August was a lot better than we were expecting, but principally because the drop back in the volatile transportation category was smaller than... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update When will housing starts take the next step to recovery? The government’s aspiration to see a million new homes by 2020 requires housing starts to be 45% higher than current levels. History suggests this is achievable. That said, while they have shown signs... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC dovish, Ukraine’s suggests further rate cuts coming Having left monetary policy unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, although it looks like the strength of the latest economic data prevented... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: where did it all go wrong? Brazil’s economic vulnerabilities have been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks after (yet another) slump in local financial markets. In this Focus we revisit key aspects of our research over... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan cuts rates, further loosening unlikely A sharp slowdown in growth and very weak price pressures were the two key factors behind the decision of Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to cut interest rates by 12.5 basis points to 1.75% at its meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Aug.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong continued to rise in August after a strong July. We expect total imports by China and India to pick up substantially in the remainder of the year as low... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up again in August, supported by a solid economic backdrop and record low interest rates. There are signs that banks’ willingness to grow their mortgage... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
