Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high and the net proportion of households saying that jobs are plentiful back at its pre-recession level, we also anticipate a 0.3% m/m increase in average hourly earnings, which would push the annual rate up to 2.5%, from 2.2%.
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