Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for modest rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.00% last night, but the more hawkish accompanying statement pointed to rate hikes in the near future. As such, we are bringing... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing in Thailand can’t be ruled out yet The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.5% today, undoubtedly with an eye on the US Fed’s rate meeting this week. But with the economy still in deflation and struggling for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slowdown on the horizon in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be as good as it gets for some time – we expect growth to slow over... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Weaker dollar won't prevent further slowdown Even though we expect both the Australian and New Zealand dollars to weaken further, to around US$0.60 and US$0.55 respectively, this won't be enough to prevent GDP growth in both economies from... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jul.) The growth of economic activity in Peru slowed slightly in July to 3.3% y/y. But even so, the reading is still relatively strong by the standards of the past year and we expect growth to pick up a... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of bright spots With good news thin on the ground in the emerging world, it’s reassuring that there are at least a few emerging markets (EMs) where growth is holding up well. Most notably, the economies of Central... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four reasons not to put much store by Shiller’s CAPE By comparing the current level of Robert Shiller’s well-known cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) with its long-run average, the equity bears assert that the US stock market is vastly... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC expects to increase market share OPEC’s oil production appears to have levelled off in the last two months after surging earlier this year. But it will still take years for demand to catch up with supply and the market to rebalance. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The August retail sales and industrial production reports highlight the continued divergence between a strong domestic economy led by healthy consumer spending and weakness in the export-orientated... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities to outperform US as monetary policies diverge Provided the panic over China subsides, we expect the yen to slide further and the Nikkei to surge as the Bank of Japan steps up the pace of its asset purchases, perhaps as soon as next month. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office employment growth points to further rental value gains The latest euro-zone labour market data show that office jobs are a key driver of overall employment growth in most member states. Moreover, even where office employment is relatively subdued, limited... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are concerns about the National Living Wage overdone? Concerns have been mounting about the impact of the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April next year, with companies such as Next and Whitbread warning that they will have to put up... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug.) Deflation in Poland eased a little last month as a fall in energy inflation was more than offset by strengthening food inflation. We expect the headline rate to return to positive territory in the... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election won’t end the Greek crisis Whichever party wins this Sunday’s Greek election is likely to stick broadly to the conditions of the new bailout in the near term. But even an austerity-minded government will struggle to meet future... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
