US Economics Weekly Disparity widens between manufacturing & other sectors With less than two weeks to go until the next FOMC meeting, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rates this month are still close to 50-50. The US economic data remain strong, with the notable... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Safe-haven demand drives gold and platinum higher The performance of the major precious metals diverged sharply in August, with gold and platinum outperforming their sister metals, silver and palladium. A further slump in Chinese equities and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Imbalance between active supply and demand widens The second estimate of GDP left Q2 growth unchanged at a respectable 0.7%. And whileemployment and wage figures disappointed, strong employment intentions and an upturn in businessinvestment suggest... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) August's employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector. This is more evidence supporting our view that the economy likely returned... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack China in the driving seat August proved to be another tough month for energy commodities with oil and coal prices slumping on worries about demand, prompted by the drop in the Chinese equity market. However, a further round of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices regain some lost ground After falling steadily throughout August, in large part associated with a plunge in Chinese equities, the prices of most industrial metals have rallied in the last week. That said, the S&P GSCI... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation in August, to 15.8% y/y, seems to have been driven by the impact of the fall in the ruble. Against this backdrop, the central bank looks likely to keep its benchmark one... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report is fairly mixed and can be used to make a case for or against a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As far as we’re concerned, the September meeting is a 50-50 toss up... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug) There is almost nothing to choose between our own forecasts for 2015 and those ofthe IPF Consensus. But we believe that a strong recovery in productivity will keep inflation subdued and allow the MPC... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the dollar’s rebound to continue We think the widespread fall in the dollar against other major currencies in the wake of the “devaluation” of the Chinese renminbi was primarily a response to a shift in expectations for US monetary... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Major challenges await Singapore after the election Singapore is holding a general election on 11th September and there is little doubt that the People’s Action Party (PAP) will once again be returned to power. Nevertheless, the PAP will want to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal position not a major concern for now The rapid expansion of the government deficit in the early part of this fiscal year has led to some concerns about the Finance Ministry’s ability to meet its budgeted target. These concerns are... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the BoJ’s alternative inflation gauges? With falls in headline inflation raising questions about its policy approach, the Bank of Japan has recently been highlighting alternative price gauges that show inflation to be rising. These... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned about recent financial market volatility? We do not believe that the recent turbulence in financial markets heralds a major global slowdown that would push the recovery in European property markets into reverse. Moreover, it has not changed... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
