Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Aug.) August’s inflation data confirmed that price pressures in Germany are very subdued,underlining the need for continued and perhaps increased ECB policy support. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s problems lie closer to home than China We are fairly relaxed about the impact of a slowdown in China on the euro-zone. Most importantly, this is because the concerns about the Chinese economy look overblown. And in any case, the direct... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More “good” deflation to boost consumer recovery Turbulence in financial markets once again overshadowed some positive economic developments on the domestic front last week. Indeed, Q2’s second estimate of GDP showed that the recovery in household... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China, domestic woes weigh on African markets African financial markets performed poorly over the past month due to acombination of domestic economic problems and deteriorating investor sentimenttowards emerging markets on the back of worries... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.) August’s EC business and consumer survey provides some reassurance that the eurozone’s economic recovery has continued in Q3, despite the turmoil in global stock markets this month. But the pace of... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrial commodities set for strong recovery into year-end The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia to recover from disappointing second quarter The first contraction in exports since the global financial crisis dragged down growth in Emerging Asia to its lowest in over three years last quarter. However, we expect a turn around over the coming... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Economic Sentiment Indicators strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe this month, suggesting that the region continued to grow at a healthy pace in the third quarter. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market showing “some” further improvement Our econometric model points to a more modest 220,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which would probably push the unemployment rate down to 5.2%, from 5.3%. That would seem to meet the Fed... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jul.) Even allowing for the usual monthly volatilty , this is a strong set of numbers from the Land Registy . A lack of homes for sale, coupled with rising demand, is driving prices higher. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The second estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the recovery received considerable support from net trade. The pound’s recent appreciation suggests that this support is unlikely to last. But with households... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from nettrade can be sustained and... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Equity sell-off to reverse soon The recent equity market sell-off in Japan, which originated in China, does not reflect a major deterioration in the economic outlook for Japan. In fact, there are signs that Chinese demand for... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The very strong reading of the GfK consumer confidence survey in August provides reassurance that recent softer growth in retail sales is likely to be just temporary. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Glimmer of hope for investment While it is hard to describe any of the recent news on investment in Australia as “good”, the latest figures were not as bad as we had feared. In particular, the plunge in commodity prices does not... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales, Household Spending Consumer Prices (Jul.) Underlying price pressures are not quite as weak as the stagnation in the ”core” CPI suggests. But following a renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter, the chances of hitting the Bank of Japan... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
