RBA Watch Chances of rate cuts diminishing, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is odds on to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday 1 st September and the chances of further rate cuts are diminishing. A... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government meddling putting RBI credibility at risk India’s Finance Ministry is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the central bank’s independence at risk. Any loss of credibility for the RBI... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monthly (Jul.) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate rebounded to a robust 5.2% y/y in July, suggesting that there is little risk of a sustained deflation or a marked slowdown in real economic growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Falling stocks may boost some metals’ prices Exchange stocks of copper remain high and have risen strongly since the start of 2015. However, stocks of other metals, notably tin and lead, are now at very low levels on a historical basis. This may... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe weathers EM sell-off well Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Trade rebound suggests world economy is down but not out 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Jun./Jul.) New home sales reversed part of June’s sharp fall in July, and alongside a surge in existing sales that has led to the tightest market conditions in a decade. Surprisingly, those tight conditions have... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August more than offset last month’s sharp fall and is consistent with consumption growth remaining healthy in the third quarter... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More monetary easing in China restores some calm to the markets 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy not at risk from modest China slowdown Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The price of US lumber set for strong recovery The price of US lumber has continued to fall since early June. But with single family unit starts andindustry confidence strengthening, we think that the price of lumber will end the year higher. 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market turmoil gives MPC another reason to delay rate hike Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent meltdown in global financial markets, we doubt that it will knock the economic recovery off course. That said, it provides the more cautious... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers put focus on supporting economy, not market With the government’s efforts to prop up equity prices through direct purchases in tatters, policymakers have changed tack with a simultaneous cut to benchmark interest rates and the required reserve... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf unlikely to be flustered by latest drop in oil prices The drop in oil prices over the past couple of months is unlikely to cause policymakers in the GCC countries to panic. The region’s large reserves mean that most countries are under little immediate... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
