Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Judging the health of New Zealand’s economy Our new Capital Economics New Zealand Activity Proxy (CE NZAP) provides a timely guide to changes in economic activity in New Zealand well ahead of the official GDP data and is a useful barometer of... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China and the SDR: fuss about nothing Reports that the IMF has decided not to add the renminbi to the SDR basket until September 2016 at the earliest miss two more important points. First, China’s currency may not be added to the basket... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices likely to recover well before soybeans Sugar and soybean prices have followed similar paths in recent years. But while the fundamentals areturning in favour of sugar, the same factors point to further weakness for soybean prices. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the slump in commodity prices a good recession signal? At face value the plunge in commodity prices over the last year is consistent with a global recession as severe as that in 2008-09. However, this time it almost certainly is different. The latest... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Against expectations, existing home sales rose once again in July, to their highest level since the start of 2007. But with the months’ supply of existing homes dropping to its lowest level in a... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2) Second quarter GDP data from Mexico were a bit better than expected but don’tchange the bigger picture that economic growth in the first half of the year wasdisappointingly weak. There is some... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (July) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium productiongrew by nearly 11% y/y in July. But excluding China, output rose by just 1.3% y/y. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q2) Housing starts fell sharply in Q2, reversing more than half of Q1’s gains. Production constraints related to labour and material shortages are still holding back activity. Over time, housing starts... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies take a beating on China worries The impact of China’s renminbi devaluation is continuing to be felt across emerging markets. The Kazakh central bank today scrapped its trading band for the tenge, which subsequently fell by over 20%... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee drops to two-year low The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in August to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike two years ago, we see little reason for policymakers to panic. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Growing disparities in Gulf fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs of diverging attitudes in the Gulf to dealing with the fiscal headache caused by low oil prices. If media reports are to be believed, the UAE looks set to... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s retail sales figures showed that the pace of spending growth on the high street moderated at the beginning of Q3. But we doubt that this signals a more widespread slowdown in the consumer... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
