Europe Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in South Africa ticked up to 5.0% in July, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation and a weak rand mean that the Reserve Bank is likely to... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will ASEAN take China’s place as the workshop of the world? We see little prospect of ASEAN transforming itself into the kind of single market and production base that would allow it to challenge China as the manufacturing workshop of the world. Nevertheless... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jul.) The trade deficit widened in July, and should continue to rise in coming months as the weaker yen pushes up import costs. 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Tianjin disaster to hit August data, but impact transitory Economic activity in Tianjin has yet to return to normal several days after the devastating explosions there. The city is a major industrial centre and the world’s tenth largest port. While most of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of deflation still confined to euro-zone and Japan Fears of a period of widespread deflation look misplaced, in our view, despite the recent fall in oil prices and China’s devaluation. Domestic forces will continue to be the key drivers of inflation... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in drilling activity likely to be temporary We doubt that the rise in the number of active drilling rigs in the US over the last few weeks will continue for much longer, despite improvements in efficiency. A renewed decline should weigh on US... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: chance of rate hikes growing A sharp fall in its currency, rising inflation and a widening current account deficit have increased the chance that Colombia’s central bank will tighten monetary conditions in the coming quarters... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Office Rental Growth Hides Finland’s Ugly Truth Finland’s year-long recession has been reflected in weakening demand for commercial property space. Yet, as occupiers have traded-up, prime property has performed exceptionally well. However, we... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why hasn’t China’s new resource tax led to higher REE prices? The costs of rare earth elements (REEs) have continued to fall despite China’s new tax regime. However, we think that it is only a matter of time before higher taxes and positive demandfundamentals... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The recovery in housing starts continues, as builders respond to improving demandfor new-build homes. The expiry of a tax-break in New York City has distorted thebuilding permit data but other leading... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead and zinc markets set to tighten Subdued demand in the first half of this year meant that the lead and zinc markets were in surplus. However, with supply expected to tighten and demand to strengthen, prices should pick up from here. 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
