China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed last quarter, dragged down by a fall services exports and subdued consumer spending. Looking ahead, we expect growth to remain weak in the coming quarters as exports... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) Euro-zone GDP growth lost some pace in the second quarter, with a renewed divergence between healthy growth in Germany and stagnation in France. 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile and Peru still happy to hold fire Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged yesterday and policymakers in both countries are still giving little indication that they expect to tighten monetary policy anytime soon... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2015) Flash Q2 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe serve as a reminder that it’s not all doom and gloom for the emerging world. GDP in the region as a whole grew by a robust 3.5% y/y. The Czech... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation will return soon CPI inflation probably held steady at zero in July, but the recent fall in oil prices suggests that the UK is likely to experience another bout of negative inflation before the end of the year... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in July to its lowest rate since the series began. This substantially increases the chance of the Reserve Bank of India cutting interest rates in another... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The government giveth, the BoJ giveth straight back The Bank of Japan will soon become the largest holder of Japanese government bonds. Since the income it earns on those securities is mostly transferred back to the government, the Bank’s JGB purchases... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will services exports fill the mining hole? While in the long-term we expect that services exports will play a big role in filling the hole in the economy left by mining, in the near-term the problem is that a lot of the boost to services... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Where is the value in US Treasuries? The renewed plunge in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries over the past month cannot be attributed to a reassessment of investors’ expectations for the path of the federal funds rate, according to the... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on the impact of China’s exchange rate shift China’s move to shore up the renminbi suggests that the exchange rate policy changes it announced earlier this week will have little lasting impact on the world economy. Nor will the small step... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The share of mortgage borrowers having trouble with repayments dropped again in the second quarter, thanks to low mortgage rates, rising house prices and a solid labour market. That progress should... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Prospect of fresh elections adds to headaches for Turkey Markets have reacted negatively to news that coalition negotiations between the two largest parties in Turkey have broken down and that fresh elections are now highly likely. While we don’t think... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q2 World Gold Council Demand Trends In its latest World Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council depicted a challenging time for gold in Q2. Demand was weak across all sectors but supply also fell, meaning that... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in July's retail sales, which matched the consensus forecast, was solid rather than spectacular. But upward revisions to sales in May and June mean that real consumption growth... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Boost to US harvests puts prices under more pressure Higher estimates by the USDA for US corn and soybean production this year (2015/16) have seen crop prices plummet. But with ample world supplies and rising stocks, we think prices can fall further. 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
