Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. 15) The rebound in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in July might suggest that the Riksbank won’t loosen monetary policy further at its next meeting. But the bigger picture is that inflation is still... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will events in China force the Fed to delay US rate lift-off? The risk of a further market-driven slide in the Chinese renminbi and the renewed slump in global commodity prices, triggered by heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, probably won’t... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks have now fallen for the third consecutive week as demand remains very strong and oil production shows signs of falling back a little. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) Although the rate of house price inflation remained at 5.1% in July, the recent rebound in the home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it may yet accelerate to 6.0%. This mainly the strength... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp drop in Indian inflation in July was due in large part to favourable base effects, and is therefore unlikely to have much bearing on upcoming policy decisions. The Reserve Bank has stated... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s ‘‘devaluation’’ means for commodity prices All else equal, a weaker renminbi means that US dollar-denominated commodities will be more expensive in local currency terms for Chinese buyers. However, with the renminbi unlikely to go into... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM markets to rebound once fears about China ease Financial markets in South Korea, Malaysia and commodity-producing EMs will probably continue to suffer the biggest losses if the renminbi depreciates further against the dollar. But we doubt that the... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s fall in industrial production rounded off a very weak quarter for the sector and strongly suggested that industry will have contributed to a slowdown in quarterly GDP growth in Q2. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s figures show that Nigerian inflation remained at 9.2% y/y in July, but we still expect that inflation will pick up later in the year. FX restrictions and the eventual weakening of the naira... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jun./Jul.) The latest labour market figures supported the current consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates do not need to rise before the end of the year. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Jun) From a property perspective the latest dip in job creation needs to be offset against the corresponding rise in productivity and profits that it implies. And if we are right that the falls in... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Talk of a fresh round of Asian "currency wars" is overblown The second downward revision to the People‘s Bank of China‘s daily reference rate for the renminbi has today intensified talk that a fresh round of “currency wars“ is about to sweep across Asia. We... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) July’s weaker-than-expected activity and spending data will undoubtedly add to speculation that policymakers are trying to engineer a sustained devaluation of the renminbi in order to shore up growth... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor June improvement in EM exports likely to be short-lived The slight improvement in EM export growth in June is unlikely to mark a turning point, given the fresh drop in commodity prices since the start of July. Indeed, judging by the data already released... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are US Treasuries to banks’ waning demand? One factor that purportedly prevented US government bond yields from rising in 2014 was banks’ increased appetite for Treasuries, which has waned this year. While other factors could continue to exert... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
