Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand's economy expanded by 2.8% y/y in the second quarter, down from 3.0% the quarter before, reflecting weaker private consumption and investment growth. Against a backdrop of high household debt... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Another look at Asia’s exposure to China The last week has been dominated by concerns that the People’s Bank of China was embarking on a competitive devaluation of the renminbi and fears that the Chinese economy might be heading for a “hard... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) The slump in output last quarter should be followed by a tepid recovery in the second half of the year. We remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will announce more easing in October. 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession debate losing its focus Although the economy might only be suffering the mildest of recessions, the bigger and far more important point often lost in the debate is that the economy is clearly underperforming its growth... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly External deflation will be swamped by domestic inflation Last week the markets were very much focused on the potential for a stalling Chinese economy to “export” deflationary pressure to the US, either via the direct impact of a weaker renminbi or through... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jun.) Following a temporary blip in May, economic activity in Peru picked up sharply in June. And thanks to the strength of today’s data, GDP over Q2 a whole probably grew at its fastest pace in annual... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) June's smaller than expected rebound in manufacturing sales values, which was even weaker in volumes terms, provides more evidence that the non-energy economy is struggling to lift the economy out of... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was virtually unchanged in August, and remains consistent with annualised consumption growth remaining close to 3%, or even better, in the... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in industrial production in July was much higher than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, but it was primarily due to a massive surge in motor vehicle output. The latter... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China’s “devaluation” lifts precious metals prices The People’s Bank of China surprised markets on Tuesday by lowering the reference rate that determines the mid-point of the renminbi’s trading band against the US dollar. Although the bank explained... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising unit labour costs a danger to the US stock market Weak productivity growth and rising wage inflation are likely to put upward pressure on unit labour costs in the US over the coming year, squeeze profit margins and cap the upside for the stock market... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A storm in a China teacup? Headlines have recently been captured by last week’s shock move by the People’s Bank of China to lower the daily reference rate for the renminbi. However, we doubt that this will have much bearing on... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bailout almost there, but it may not last long The remaining hurdles to the implementation of the third Greek bailout look likely to be cleared in the next few days. But the deal could unravel quite quickly if Greece fails to meet the extremely... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will the fall in aluminium prices lead to output cuts? The sharp fall in aluminium prices this year could be expected to lead to output cuts across the industry. But with China’s production less sensitive to prices, output cuts are more likely elsewhere... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery remains soft and patchy Economic growth has typically strengthened, but Russia continues to fare poorly and there are some signs of weakness emerging in Norway and Turkey. A lack of major deals in emerging Europe has held... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
