India Economics Update No need to panic over rupee sell-off The rupee has depreciated to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum" this morning, but we don't think that this will cause panic among policymakers. Since the start of the year, the rupee has... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing construction boom likely to end in bust The latest housing start figures don't fully reflect the relatively stronger pace of building permits, an indication that home building may accelerate further in the near-term, even as signs point to... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How has the lower oil price affected US credit spreads? It is tempting to interpret the recent increase in the average spread of US corporate bonds over Treasuries as a sign that the economic recovery is faltering. However, the increase appears to have... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC keeps the pumps on full blast Last month’s increase in supply from OPEC adds to the glut of oil already in the market and underlines the cartel’s commitment not to cut output just to support prices in the short term. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Further fall in Brazilian real could add to sugar’s woes Continued weakness in the Brazilian currency could undermine the price of sugar further. However, we think greater ethanol production and consumption in Brazil will provide some support to the price... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Additional cuts in investment to help oil prices rise next year The renewed decline in oil prices has prompted another round of investment and job cuts in the sector. Slower growth in non-OPEC output should therefore support a partial recovery in prices over the... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in productivity growth is the no.1 economic problem Ignore the 1.3% annualised rebound in non-farm productivity in the second quarter, which barely reversed the 1.1% decline in the first quarter. The bigger story is the almost unprecedented weakness of... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next year Strong growth in household spending this year will give way to a weaker performance in 2016. But this slowdown will not be severe and the medium-term outlook is bright. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) A rebound in Mexican industrial production in June was always likely given the sharp fall in output in May. But the industrial sector probably made a meagre contribution to GDP growth over Q2 as a... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Spillovers to EMs from renminbi “devaluation” limited The decision by the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate for the renminbi has generated plenty of headlines about spillovers to other EMs. In practice, however, we think that... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi “devaluation” may not be such a big deal Today’s reduction in the daily reference rate for the renminbi has been widely interpreted as the first of many moves whose main purpose is to regain competiveness by devaluing the Chinese currency... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Jun.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were slightly above consensus, but still point to a contraction in the economically-crucial sector. Firms have failed to benefit from a weaker rand, another sign... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2015 Q2) Mortgage lending for house purchase grew strongly in Q2, particularly in the buy-to-let sector. And despite signs that mortgage rates might be bottoming out, high levels of employment and rising real... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout built on fantasy forecasts While Greece appears finally to be on the verge of receiving a third bailout, the extremely optimisticeconomic & fiscal projections underlying the plan suggest that it might not last for very long. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Aug.) August’s fall in ZEW investor sentiment suggests that, despite Greece moving closer to a deal with its creditors, investors are increasingly worried about Germany’s recovery. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
