UK Data Response MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report (Aug.) The ‘Super Thursday’ releases from the MPC suggested that an interest rate rise is still not imminent. The Committee wants to be cautious and wait for price pressures to emerge before pressing the... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property market should shrug off equity price falls When equity prices collapsed in 2007, property prices and sales also collapsed. This precedent has led to concerns that the latest stock market rout may spark a sharp fall in property demand. These... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Crisis deepens in Brazil The economic and political troubles facing Brazil have deepened over the past few weeks. The good news is that we think the big falls in the prices of the country’s commodity exports are probably now... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Jun.) Buying by global central banks picked up pace in June, with Russia once again particularly active. Going forward, we expect further official purchases to be one of several factors supporting the price... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) After a strong June reading, the Halifax reported a 0.6% m/m fall in house prices during July. This brought underlying price growth down, although it remains at a respectable 2.4%. House price... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why hasn’t the German recovery taken off? Hopes that Germany would drive a strong euro-zone recovery have faded as subdued demand for its exports has offset the boost from a weaker euro. This trend is set to continue. And as the consumer... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production figures highlighted that the strong pound and weak overseas demand held back the manufacturing sector’s recovery in the second quarter. And the prospects for the rest of... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell again last week as refinery runs surged and imports fell slightly. But production rebounded slightly and stocks of gasoline rose. 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rate hold does not signify end of tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Kenyan MPC to leave interest rates at 11.50% will give the economy a bit of breathing room, but we still expect that currency weakness will lead the CBK to hike rates to 13.00%... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment wanes Surging prices of a number of agricultural commodities from mid June to early July saw investors increase the number of net long non-commercial positions. However, recent improvements in the prospects... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Base effects to drag down inflation Large base effects are likely to have dragged down inflation in July. The Reserve Bank has stated that it will be looking through base effects over the coming months when making policy decisions... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The surprisingly large narrowing in June's trade deficit was driven by a rebound in export volumes and is a positive sign for the economy. Considering the mixed performance of exports lately, however... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rents have more room to grow in the North At the national level, private rent payments as a share of earnings are currently slightly above their average since records began in 2005. But there are large regional differences. With the rent... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
