Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) Russian inflation picked up in July for the first time since March, but this was driven entirely by last month’s hikes in household utility tariffs. In contrast, core price pressures eased. Inflation... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Although the CoreLogic measure of annual house price growth increased again in June, the underlying pace of gains has slowed since the start of the year. As a result, the index is finally falling back... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Romanian MPC sounding increasingly cautious Having left its policy interest rate on hold at 1.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC used this afternoon’s press conference to suggest that the government’s plans to loosen fiscal policy raise the... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production data from Brazil, while better than expected, are still consistent with GDP falling by the most since the depths of the global financial crisis in Q2. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) Activity rates in the commercial construction sector inched up in July, but are well below the levels that were typical in the middle of last year. However, with the outlook for occupier demand still... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) According to Nationwide, house prices grew by 0.4% m/m in July. Annual price growth picked up to 3.5%, a signal that the slowdown in price growth seen over the past year is coming to an end. Prices... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery and reforms show no signs of boosting jobs The Italian economy’s tentative return to growth and recent structural reforms are unlikely to feed into a meaningful labour market recovery for some time yet. So frustrations with Mr Renzi’s... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs provide early signs that activity in the Gulf strengthened at the start of Q3. Elsewhere, although Egypt’s PMI edged down in July, it still points to stronger growth... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's rate-cutting cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep interest rates on hold today does not signal the end of the current loosening cycle. We are forecasting one more 25bp cut in this cycle, which would bring... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chances of RBA rate cuts fading, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for a third consecutive month appears to diminish the chances that rates will eventually fall to 1.5% as we have been... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Q2 contraction to force policymakers’ hand The economy almost certainly contracted last quarter, rendering the Bank’s upbeat GDP forecasts increasingly unrealistic and denting hopes that inflation will reach 2% by next summer. Rather than... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Labour cash earnings fell the most since the 2009 recession during the first month of the summer bonus season, highlighting that the tight labour market has not created stronger wage pressures. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities under siege The prices of almost all the major commodities fell sharply last month as sentiment plummeted, despite a deal to bailout Greece earlier in the month. Industrial metals and energy commodities suffered... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) July’s final manufacturing PMIs suggest that the world economy began the third quarter on a weak note. However, we expect global growth to hold up fairly well over the rest of the year as China’s... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index suggests that the factory sector is continuing to suffer the effects of the dollar’s appreciation. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
