Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s inflation data confirmed that price pressures in Germany are very subdued, underlining the need for continued and perhaps increased ECB policy support. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Ratings downgrade wouldn’t cause Brazilian bond yields to spike Brazil’s deteriorating fiscal position had already caused foreign currency bond yields to rise by 100bp this year and we do not expect any ratings downgrades in the coming weeks to have much of an... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) Ireland's economy went like the clappers in Q1, setting the country up for another year as the euro-zone's fastest-growing economy. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jul.) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Survey for July provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economic recovery has retained some momentum in the third quarter. But growth... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies caught up in EM sell-off Asian currencies have been caught up in a general sell-off of EM assets this month, as interest rate hikes in the US have started to loom. Some currencies are now at or close to multi-year lows. That... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2) The latest upturn in construction sector workloads is encouraging. Yet such headline survey measures almost certainly overstate the contribution that the sector is likely to make to the wider recovery... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates, tightening cycle probably over The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 14.25% was largely expected, but the move to signal the end of the tightening cycle in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The falls in July’s Economic Sentiment Indicators across much of Emerging Europe were disappointing in light of the rise in the German survey. But even so, the figures are still consistent with strong... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact could Fed and BoE rate rises have on European real estate? Early interest rate rises in the US and UK will push up bond yields globally. But, with further monetary easing still likely in Europe, we do not expect much of an effect on European assets. We... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2, Prov.) The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed that the economic recovery regained some momentum after the disappointing start to the year. But we doubt that it will prevent the Riksbank from... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 est.) & HICP (Jul.) While Spain’s economic recovery gathered more pace in the second quarter, the large amount of spare capacity is still sustaining deflationary pressures in the economy. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New Financial Code risks damaging RBI independence The draft version of the government’s Financial Code, released last week, could have important implications for the functioning of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The adoption of a voting monetary... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will population ageing help or derail efforts to boost inflation? Other things being equal, population ageing should boost price pressures. But that hasn’t happened in Japan because there has been an offsetting increase in the share of adults willing to work... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rebound in industrial output in June was not strong enough to prevent a contraction in Q2, and we stick to our view that the economy shrank last quarter. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2 15, Prov.) The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed that the economic recovery regained some momentum after the disappointing start to the year. But we doubt that it will prevent the Riksbank from... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
