Global Economics Update Conditions to stay loose despite looming Fed hikes Even though the US Fed is likely to begin raising interest rates in September, global monetary conditions are set to remain ultra-loose over the coming years as a number of other central banks ease... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bleak outlook for exports The slump in India’s exports over the past few months has been caused in part by the sharp fall in global oil prices and the relative strength of the US dollar, two trends that are unlikely to be... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How useful is Malaysia's PMI? A new manufacturing PMI survey for Malaysia launched by Nikkei and Markit earlier this month appears to track the hard data reasonably well and points to a further slowdown in the manufacturing sector... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Taiwan slowed much more sharply than expected in the second quarter of the year, with the recent slump in export demand taking a heavy toll on the economy. However, there are reasons to... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pondering potential growth Australia’s potential growth rate has probably slowed to around 2.75% from the 3.00% to 3.25% that the Reserve Bank of Australia has assumed for many years. While this may decrease the Bank’s desire... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Jun.) Today's data provide some tentative signs that underlying price pressure has started to strengthen again. But with consumer spending falling to the lowest level since last year’s sales tax hike, we... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack continues to shrink Our econometric model points to a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July, although we suspect that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, as the labour force rebounds. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update El Niño won’t be enough to reduce demand for gas The strong possibility of an El Niño event this winter could mean slightly lower demand for natural gas for heating and less disruption to offshore production. However, any impact from El Niño is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate) The second-quarter GDP data support the Fed’s more upbeat tone on economic conditions and suggests that the economy could cope with higher interest rates. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand will push palm oil prices lower With huge soybean supplies likely to push down the price of soy oil, we expect demand for palm oil to remain weak. Combined with high stocks, we think the price of palm oil will fall further this year... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Hawks to break rank This month’s MPC vote will probably be split for the first time this year. While only a minority will vote for a rate rise, the risk of a hike this year has risen. Indeed, Mark Carney will probably... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons why growth should hold up in coming quarters Sentiment about the economic outlook for China has darkened again, with the equity market debacle casting a shadow. But we see three reasons to be relatively positive about prospects for growth in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Government audit puts focus on corruption An audit of government expenditure provides yet more evidence of widespread corruption in Kenya. But while the new findings make for grim reading, the existence of the report – and others like it – is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jun.) Activity data from Chile were stronger than expected in June but, as a result of softer figures for April and May, we still think that GDP growth in Q2 will be weaker than in Q1. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
