Europe Economics Update Massive economic damage means Grexit still likely The scale of the damage done to the Greek economy by the country’s renewed crisis and imposition of capital controls looks set to be far worse than the provisional plans for a third bailout envisaged... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the new Suez Canal for Egypt? The new Suez Canal, due to be inaugurated this week, could in theory bring major economic benefits to the Egyptian economy. However, the government’s projections appear to be based on implausibly... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Perceptions of property valuations suggest core will underperform Across Europe, only in a few core markets do a majority of RICS members believe that property valuations are expensive. While that boosts the case for commercial property investment generally, it also... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The peripheral economies continued to make fiscal progress in June. But halfway through the year, most have much more work to do if they are to meet their 2015 budget targets. The economic... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained stable at a relatively strong 51.4 in July, providing a rare piece of good news for the economy. But we still doubt that manufacturing will be a significant... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggested that the sector has struggled to regain traction at the start of Q3, after a poor showing in Q2. And the prospects for the industrial recovery over... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) & Turkey CPI (Jul.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the escalation of the Greek crisis had little impact on manufacturing in Central Europe. Meanwhile, there was good news from Turkey as the PMI ticked... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI increased in July, but conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a sustained... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Although most of Emerging Asia's PMIs ticked up in July, the woes of the region's manufacturing sectors are far from over. In fact, in the three economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into the weak July reading of Caixin’s manufacturing PMI which we suspect was dragged down by bad weather and more downbeat business sentiment following recent stock market... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident, second-quarter rebound confirmed The Fed's more upbeat tone on economic conditions in the latest FOMC policy statement was a long way from it ringing the alarm bells on a September lift-off. Nevertheless, it still suggests that the... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shortage nothing more than a myth A housing shortage has been determined by the housing industry as the key explanation for record high house prices. While this interpretation appears to have caught on in certain circles, the broader... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's GDP contracted by 0.2% m/m, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, thereby providing more evidence that the economy slipped into a recession in the first half of the year. With oil prices... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Relative calm after the storm Last week’s negative sentiment towards commodities spilled over into this week as the prices of most commodities fell further, albeit to a lesser extent. Even the upward revision to US GDP in Q1 and... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
