UK Economics Chart Pack More deflation on the way The UK is heading for a renewed period of deflation. The fall back in oil prices to below $50 per barrel will bear down on petrol prices soon. In addition, sterling has continued to appreciate and on... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Labour market recovery stalls While the euro-zone economy has continued to weather the ongoing Greek crisis reasonably well, one potentially worrying recent development is the apparent slowdown in the labour market recovery. Not... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The widening in the trade deficit to $43.8bn in June, from an upwardly revised $40.9bn in May, is more or less as the BEA assumed in its GDP estimate and therefore doesn’t point to a revision to the 2... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pork prices boost headline inflation Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen to an 11-month high in July on the back of surging pork prices. Volatility in food inflation aside, the bigger picture is that inflation is set to edge... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The upward trend in mortgage interest rates seems to be holding back mortgage applications. However, provided the labour market continues to strengthen as we expect, looser credit conditions and... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Copper prices could eventually boost equities in Chile and Peru Our bullish view on copper prices suggests that stock markets in Chile and Peru could outperform over the medium-term, but persistently low oil prices look set to be an unwanted headwind for equities... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jul.) & GDP revisions The slight deterioration in July’s Markit/CIPS services survey is unlikely to dissuade two or three members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from voting to raise interest rates at this week’s... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending growth slowed in Q2. But July’s final Composite PMI implies that the wider economy maintained a steady pace of... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Too soon to call the end of Thailand’s easing cycle The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.5% today, but with the economy still struggling for momentum, we think it is still too early to call the end of the easing cycle. We... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia's economy recorded another quarter of weak growth in Q2, again showing the negative effects of lower commodity prices. If, as we expect, there is no improvement in the second half of the... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures to strengthen only gradually There are tentative signs that underlying price pressures have strengthened again since the start of the year. However, GDP almost certainly shrank in Q2, and a rapid rebound in the second half of the... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Another bad month for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies suffered more heavy losses in the past month and while further big falls are hard to justify over a medium term horizon, there could be more downside in the near term... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Negative sentiment weighs on precious metal prices The prices of almost all precious metals fell sharply last month as sentiment towards commodities in general plummeted. A further slump in Chinese equities and unexpectedly weak Chinese PMI numbers... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Obama and the EPA escalate the “war on coal” The rules set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency should ultimately serve to reduce demand for coal and put downward pressure on prices, even if there are lengthy legal challenges. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
