Commodities Update Plenty of upside for the price of lumber The price of US lumber fell almost 30% between the start of the year and mid-May, weighed down by a poor start to the year for US housing starts. After a brief rally in June, the price has slumped... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium resolving its structural problems? Belgium has started to reform its labour market and improve its competitiveness. But this will take time to bear fruit, and further work will be needed. Accordingly, over the next few years we expect... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bailout on the rocks before it’s begun? Looking ahead to this week, we think that euro-zone retail sales data for June will reveal a slight slowdown in annual sales growth. On a country level, indicative of their wider economic performances... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil slashes its fiscal goals The substantial cuts to Brazil’s primary surplus targets announced this month underline the inherent difficulty of fixing budget problems against the backdrop of a weakening economy. As it happens... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Jun.) & Kenya Inflation (Jul.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in June was the result of rising exports, rather than just weak import demand. This is a positive sign for the economy, which has... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC cuts rates, but ruble concerns come to the fore The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its one-week repo rate by 50bp, to 11.0%, today, but the recent fall in the ruble triggered a clear shift in the Council’s tone, and policymakers are no longer... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cracks appear in government rescue efforts Renewed falls in China’s equity markets at the end of this month underline that investors are focused more than ever on policymakers’ intentions rather than fundamentals. Meanwhile, market interest... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another milestone for the economic recovery Last week’s GDP figures indicated that the economic recovery has passed another milestone, namely that GDP per capita is now back to its pre-crisis levels. Admittedly, it has taken an extremely long... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) Euro-zone inflation was well below target in July and renewed rises in unemployment suggest that disinflationary forces remain strong. 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about currency weakness? Asian currencies have fallen again over the past week, with a number now at multi-year low sagainst the US dollar. With the exception of Malaysia, where US dollar debt is high, currency weakness is... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Another bumper month for investment The latest data on the commercial property sector offer few signs that values are approaching a peak, or even a plateau. A decent economic backdrop is supporting occupier demand and rental value... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy to recover only slowly from Q2 slump The June activity and spending data cemented our view that Japan’s economy shrank last quarter.While business surveys point to a rebound in Q3, growth will likely remain too slow to create strong... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate cuts likely to come onto the agenda The Egyptian central bank kept its benchmark O/N deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% late last night, but with inflation set to fall sharply, rate cuts are likely to come back onto the cards. We have... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals weakness to hasten silver supply decline Silver might soon be in a shortage as low commodity prices prompt further capital expenditure cuts across primary and secondary mines. Silver is often mined as a by-product of copper, gold, zinc, and... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The GfK consumer confidence survey softened in July, but remained high by historical standards. This suggests that the consumer recovery still has plenty of momentum and that household spending should... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
