Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) The jump in small business confidence in July suggests that the economy should recover in the third quarter after Q2’s slump. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lower potential growth wouldn’t rule out rate cuts It looks as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will break this year’s pattern of cutting interest rates at meetings that are followed by the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy by... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The renewed drop in retail sales in June adds to the evidence that consumer spending fell last quarter. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets weather fall in oil prices Equity markets in the Gulf have performed better than might have been expected this month, given the fresh fall in global oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian stocks,bonds and the currency have all fared... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key housing markets won't defy gravity for much longer The Vancouver and Toronto housing markets appear to be enjoying a revival of late, in contrast to most other markets in Canada. But with labour market conditions set to deteriorate this year and... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Another rout of EM markets not justified by valuations Emerging market (EM) financial markets have come under stress once again in recent weeks as interest rate hikes in the US loom large on the horizon. Markets in the emerging world feel like a one-way... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit bubble deflating, consumers feel the squeeze A combination of increases in policy interest rates and curbs on lending by some public banks is taking some of the air out of Brazil’s credit bubble. So far it seems that the bubble is deflating... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China and US, not Iran, most important for oil prices Oversupply and the looming return of exports from Iran are undoubtedly weighing on oil prices. However, prices are likely to continue to be more influenced by sentiment towards commodities in general... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from risk of industrial unrest The slump in platinum prices to the lowest level in over six years has forced South Africa’s mining companies to restructure, leading to job cuts. With the situation between labour unions and miners... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The sharp fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July, to 90.9 from 99.8 in June (revised down from 101.4), points to an easing in consumption growth in the second half of the... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates / Case-Shiller (Q2/May) Today’s housing market data suggest that the recent slowdown in house price growth may now be going into reverse. They also support our view that rental value growth could soon reach a 30-year high. 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Another strong quarter for European property investment The majority of European countries recorded a rise in commercial property investment in the second quarter, with the peripheral euro-zone markets generally leading the pack. Despite the latest RICS... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Export success masks Portugal’s external weakness Portugal’s exports have been amongst the euro-zone’s fastest growing over the last few years. But the country’s external position remains very fragile, leaving it vulnerable to renewed market... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jun.) According to the Land Registry, house prices rose 1.1% m/m in June, their largest monthly gain in nearly two years. With interest rates at record lows, a shortage of homes for sale on the market and... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2) The first estimate of GDP in Q2 confirmed that the economic recovery got back on track after its slowdown at the start of the year. On the face of it, this could bring an interest rate rise closer... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
