Africa Economics Update Zambia: New Eurobond raises regional debt concerns The high yield demanded for Zambia’s recent Eurobond is not just a sign of that country’s deteriorating fiscal position. Market sentiment towards Sub-Saharan African government debt seems to be... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee weakness unlikely to concern policymakers The recent weakness of the rupee, which has fallen by more than 1.5% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, is unlikely to worry policymakers. For a start, the fall in the rupee is a... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasury yields to rise as relatively aggressive Fed hikes unfold 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian debt fears ease a little, but default still likely Fears about a near-term and potentially messy default by Ukraine eased a little this month, providing some respite for the country’s sovereign dollar debt. But even so, some form of default still... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June's durable goods data suggest that the rebound in investment in business and equipment in the second quarter was probably smaller than we expected. Nevertheless, this isn’t enough to prompt us to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy Once the US FOMC has begun to raise its target for the federal funds rate, it is widely expected that subsequent increases will be very gradual, as the rate is only slowly returned to a more “normal”... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q2) July’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided more evidence that the strongerpound has snuffed out the recovery in the manufacturing sector. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China's gold imports (Jun.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in June after a strong May. However, we expect total imports by China and India to pick up in the second half of the year as low prices attract a... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy to diverge sharply by the end of 2016 The uneven pace of growth in the developed world is likely to lead to a sharper divergence in monetary policy than most anticipate by the end of 2016. US rates look set to increase further than... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Renewed focus on Gulf’s fiscal positions The fresh fall in oil prices has turned attention back to fiscal positions in the Gulf, with the UAE’s government the latest to announce measures to rein in spending. The UAE plans to deregulate fuel... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone monetary data point to a continued economic recovery, although they suggest that growth will not gather much more pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment is an encouraging sign that the recovery has continued despite the Greek crisis, although it does not seem to be gaining much pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
