US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) The rise in existing home sales to their highest level since before the financial crisis provides further evidence that the housing recovery has shifted into a higher gear. The resilience of the wider... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Stronger dollar not a big threat to EM foreign currency bonds 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade volume falls again World trade volumes fell sharply in May – the fourth monthly fall during the first five months of the year. This leaves trade growth lagging well behind the growth of GDP. Most of the slowdown has... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to growth being markedly slower than the official figures show. That said, it supports the view that growth stabilised in Q2 and that policy support has recently... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation in the first half of this month means that another 50bp hike in the Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting is almost a certainty. But there are signs... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Greater scope for prime office yields to narrow in Munich than London The spread between government bond yields in Germany and the UK is less indicative of the relative strength of the two countries’ economic outlooks than it was in the past. As such, in contrast to... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Crisis = opportunity? Sentiment towards commodities as an asset class has rarely, if ever, been more negative. This is understandable given the persistent weakness of prices and the headwinds on both the demand and supply... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s recovery: lessons from Iberia Spain’s and Portugal’s recoveries offer some hope for Italy, the periphery’s laggard. But Italy’s exports are still too uncompetitive and its firms too unprofitable to mimic the export and investment... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) The minutes of July’s MPC meeting gave strong hints that at least a couple of members are on the brink of voting to raise Bank Rate. Undeniably, the probability of a 2015 rate rise has grown over the... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation came in at a below-consensus 4.7% y/y in June, but inflation remains on an upwards trend. While this surprise result will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank, we still... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in Australia's headline consumer price inflation in the second quarter will not trouble the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), given that it largely reflects a rebound in petrol prices. Instead... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Drought adds to Thailand’s economic headwinds A severe drought in Thailand is hurting its agricultural sector and adding to the country’s economic woes. Rising downside risks to growth will increase pressure on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Grexit or not – euro-zone equities should shine We expect the US FOMC to tighten policy faster and further than most envisage and think this will drive both the dollar and US Treasury yields higher. By contrast, we expect the yields of governments... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
