Energy Update US shale firms squeeze every last drop Sharp falls in the cost of drilling and fracking shale oil wells mean that some firms can now be profitable even when oil prices are extremely low. This should help to reduce the sharp declines in oil... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will central banks continue to buy gold? Central banks have become major buyers of gold, accounting on average for about 10% of total gold demand over the past five years. The primary driver of central banks’ gold buying continues to be... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions set to deteriorate While the steady job gains from the household employment survey are often highlighted as a sign that the oil-induced recession in the first half of the year was an unusually mild one, closer... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly From “super-cycle” to “commodity meltdown”? Sentiment has soured dramatically in the past week with the prices of almost all commodities falling sharply. Ironically, many of the same commentators who continued to peddle the “supercycle”... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys suggest that global growth weakened further in July, butwe do not think that the world economy is heading for another major downturn. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) New home sales unexpectedly declined in June, and have struggled to make much progress since the start of the year. However, the recent growth in existing sales shows that housing demand is... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (May) Mexico’s IGAE Activity Indicator for May was weak and suggests that economic growth is on course to slow to a sluggish 2.0% y/y in Q2, from 2.5% y/y in Q1. Nevertheless, we expect the economy to... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak growth hindering euro-zone’s fiscal progress Greece last week passed the necessary reforms to start negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout. But with the country back in recession, it will struggle to meet the creditors’ fiscal goals... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for further widening of renminbi band China may be on the cusp of again widening the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. The lesson of previous similar moves is that they have next to no impact on the medium-term path of the currency... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Short-term supply concerns boost prices Renewed strength of the US dollar over the past month and a deterioration in sentiment towards commodities in general as an asset class, have been headwinds for commodity prices. However, short-term... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger GDP figures won’t rush the MPC The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek deal brings sigh of relief Greece’s move towards a third bailout has brought relief to Central and South Eastern Europe where concerns about contagion were very real, particularly in the Balkans. While it is too early to say... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan-China trade agreements are not a big deal There is concern among some parts of Taiwan’s business community that a cooler stance toward China under the next government could hurt the economy. However, closer relations between China and Taiwan... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals for both house purchase and remortgaging grew in June,driven by low mortgage rates and a greater willingness to lend by banks. With active housing demand recovering and lending... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
