Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q2) Data on Asia’s Q2 cocoa grindings revealed a 12% y/y decline, the fourth consecutive y/y fall. This follows data released last week which showed continued weakness in North America and Europe. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s renewed fall in the euro-zone composite PMI offers some early support to our view that the fragile recovery will slow in the second half of the year. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) Today’s weak PMI reading from China will reinforce the negative sentiment towards commodities, notably industrial commodities, but demand should still pick up on further policy easing. Meanwhile... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Net government debt to remain stable We expect the ratio of net government debt to GDP to remain broadly unchanged in coming years, as a weaker yen and a buoyant stock market should lift the value of public assets by enough to offset... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today's PMI reading suggests that recent improvements in economic momentum may have been derailed this month by weaker foreign demand. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector returned to growth in the third quarter following a likely drop in output in Q2. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in retail sales volumes in May, offsetting a similar decline the month before, suggests that most Canadian consumers remain confident about job prospects. But that could all... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor How vulnerable are US equities to tighter Fed policy? Some see tighter monetary policy as the biggest threat to the US stock market. But its onset did not have a major effect during the last three major Fed tightening cycles. What’s more, the fact that... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st-16th Jul.) Wet weather in the first half of July meant that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil fell 37% compared to the second half of June. As a result, both sugar and ethanol production dropped... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for real pay continues to brighten Households are continuing to see substantial increases in their purchasing power. Annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) picked up from 2.7% in April to 2.8% in May, well above... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jul.) The continued decline in inflation in Mexico in the first half of this month should further dispel fears that a weaker currency will have any meaningful impact on the headline rate. With inflation... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa finally begins tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked its key interest rate from 5.75% to 6.00% today, judging that the threat of elevated inflation outweighed the risk of choking off already weak growth. The... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
