Energy Update OPEC to resist calls to cut output We think that OPEC will remain steadfast in its policy of maintaining high output, despite the renewed slump in oil prices and the potential return of exports from Iran. 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the slump in equities mean for property? Yesterday’s sharp falls in global equity markets and the value of UK real estate equities have not altered the outlook for the UK commercial property market over the next year or so. Commercial... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economic outlook doesn’t point to a bear market in US equities A slump of around 10% in the S&P 500 since 10th August is unlikely to mark the start of a bear market, which typically only occur in, and around, recessions. We are sticking with our forecast that the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update 1MDB scandal highlights problems that hold Malaysia back The scandal over 1MDB is not the biggest threat to Malaysia’s short-term economic outlook or the main cause of the recent collapse in the ringgit. However, it does shine a light on institutional... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) Although the latest data show stronger output in the South African PGM sector in June, the risk of strike action has risen in the last month and the potential for further power disruption remains. We... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The sharp drop in South African GDP in Q2 was the second worst outturn since the depths of the global financial crisis. Today’s data may prompt the Reserve Bank’s MPC to think twice before next month... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug) & GDP Breakdown (Q2) August’s German Ifo survey suggested that GDP growth had continued to accelerate in Q3. But expectations for the future were weakening even before the latest rise in the euro, suggesting that growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Banks report sluggish loan demand, but lenders have underestimated the strength ofcredit growth since last year’s sales tax hike. We think that borrowing by householdsand firms will continue to... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Sinking commodity prices more bad news for Canada The turmoil in global financial markets, particularly the renewed weakness in commodity prices, is more bad news for Canada’s struggling economy. The timing of the Federal election in October may... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker real starting to bring benefits to Brazil The latest slump in Brazilian markets has added to gloom over the outlook for the economy, but there are early signs that a much weaker real is now starting to benefit the country’s trade position. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed bow to market turmoil and delay rate hikes? There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Equity price falls don’t materially alter economic outlook While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, we don’t think that the recent sharp falls in equity prices will filter through into much weaker investment or consumption. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets take a bruising Equity markets across the MENA region have been hit hard over the past month against the backdrop of the general turmoil in global financial markets and a fresh drop in oil prices. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sticking with (most of) our forecasts for developed markets We have reviewed our key forecasts for developed markets in light of the renewed slump in China’s stock market and related panic. Despite the turmoil, for now we are retaining our existing forecasts... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
