Europe Economics Weekly Markets pressure ECB to deliver Policymakers at the ECB have seemingly been priming the markets for additional stimulus to be announced in December. With some form of easing now priced into the market, the Bank is under pressure to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) Canada’s economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August, much slower than in the previous two months. Those gains in June and July mean that the economy still grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Osborne’s tax credit options Mr Osborne has various options to soften the impact of his cuts in tax credits, but all of them will cost him some money. Admittedly, this might “only” be a couple of billion for a couple of years... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s election Opinion polls suggest that Sunday’s parliamentary election in Turkey will deliver another hung parliament, and immediate attention is likely to concentrate on the likelihood of a coalition being... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update GDP data for Q3 point to slowdown, not meltdown Data released so far indicate that the world economy held up fairly well in Q3, contrary to widely-held fears of a sharp deceleration. What’s more, global growth is likely to strengthen over the... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit slowdown has further to run Credit growth has continued to weaken in most of the countries which we have previously highlighted as being most at risk of a crisis. The two exceptions are China and Vietnam. Although an... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to rate cuts The Russian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold today, but there was a clear shift in tone in the accompanying statement, suggesting that the MPC plans to resume the easing cycle... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could a La Niña next year affect agriculturals? With the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the current El Niño could see a marked decline during the first quarter of next year, there is a significant risk that La Niña could develop... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas market vulnerable to a correction if cold weather hits High stocks and forecasts of a mild winter have driven down US natural gas prices recently, but given slowing production growth, rising demand and the unpredictability of the weather, we think that... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) While the euro-zone avoided a second straight month of falling prices in October, the absence of inflation in the region keeps the pressure firmly on the ECB to expand its QE programme in December. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attention shifts to bonds as equities recover Chinese equities broke a four-month losing streak in October. Meanwhile, a contraction in spreads for corporate bonds has sparked fears that a bubble is building. But there is little that looks likely... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen still set to fall further as monetary policies diverge Japan’s economy probably shrank yet again last quarter, resulting in a renewed increase in spare capacity. With the outlook for growth and inflation both worse than policymakers predict, we continue... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) On the face of it, the dip in October’s GfK consumer confidence survey suggests that the consumer recovery may be running out of steam. But with the headline balance high by past standards and... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.) Spain’s economic growth slowed a touch in the third quarter, suggesting that the country’s impressive recovery may be starting to lose a bit of steam. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cautious Bank of Japan leaves door open for further easing The Bank of Japan pushed back the timing for reaching its 2% inflation target today and sees downside risks to economic activity. With underlying inflation likely to stall soon, we expect policymakers... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation target out of reach With more than half of the fiscal year having elapsed, the government’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks increasingly... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
