Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain low in Thailand for some time yet With the economy starting to show some tentative signs of recovery, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ’s new inflation gauge climbs to fresh high The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged at its end-October meeting amid tentative signs of stabilisation in manufacturing activity and an ongoing rebound in its favourite inflation measure... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While the rebound in consumer confidence in October suggests that consumer spending will continue to recover, the renewed fall in household inflation expectations should ring alarm bells at the Bank... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Sep.) September's retail sales and international trade figures support the RBA's view that economic conditions have recently "firmed". They suggest that GDP growth may have rebounded from the dismal 0.2% q... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The stark deterioration in labour market conditions in New Zealand in the third quarter pretty much guarantees that the RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% at the meeting in December, from 2.75% now. What's... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark theend of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields set to rise (even if first rate hike is in Q1) Whether or not the FOMC decides to raise rates for the first time in December or early next year, we think Treasury yields will climb from their current levels for two key reasons. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Growth steady but slow Early indications from business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a steady but slow pace at the beginning of the fourth quarter. For example, the composite PMI... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Producers have started cutting supply Many metals markets have been in comfortable surplus this year, which has been a factor weighing on prices. However, in October there were signs that supply cuts in response to low prices are starting... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The drop in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in October, to a five-year low of 44.1, is an early (and ominous sign) that the country’s recession continued into Q4. Perhaps the one crumb of comfort in today... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The RICS commercial property survey highlights that supply is responding to occupier market conditions. Yet new supply will take time to deliver a material change in availability. Meanwhile, rents are... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Even accounting for the fact that over the past few months the first estimate of house price inflation from CoreLogic has consistently been revised down, today’s reading of a seasonally adjusted 1.3%... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) The slowdown in commercial construction seen earlier this year is now firmly in reverse. That implies that confidence in the economic recovery and the occupier market outlook among developers is solid... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Currency crisis prompts sharp rate hike The Bank of Zambia’s decision to hike rates by 300bps was a predictable response to last month’s inflation surge. And with the currency likely to remain under pressure, further hikes remain possible. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs for the MENA region suggest that economic activity slowed in the Gulf at the start of Q4. As the policy adjustment to cheap oil gets underway, we expect growth to weaken... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
