Over the past month, the US dollar’s performance against other “major” currencies has been mixed. It has fared poorly against those of the two major commodity exporters, Australia and Canada, which have benefited from an improvement in sentiment towards commodities amid signs that China’s economy is stabilising. By contrast, it has fared well against the currencies of non-commodity-exporting economies where policy is likely to become looser soon, such as the euro-zone and Japan. Looking ahead, we expect the Fed’s major currencies dollar index to rise.
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