Economy will struggle to cope with oil shock

Although the mild recession in the first half of this year has ended, the drag from falling business investment triggered by the slump in oil prices is far from over and growing imbalances in the housing market threaten to topple the economy. What’s more, the lower Canadian dollar has provided only a modest boost to non-energy exports. We expect meagre GDP growth of only 1.0% in 2015 and 2016, before a recovery finally begins to emerge in 2017.