Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to fall further against the dollar, but not the euro 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can recent market turmoil derail UK property? The turn of the year has brought with it renewed uncertainty around the prospects for the UK and the world economy and we have nudged down our UK economic growth forecasts as a result. But the... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How disruptive have the TRID regulations been? The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How strong are competitive forces in the mortgage market? Competitive forces in the mortgage market have strengthened over the past year. But some types of borrowers have benefitted far more than others. In particular, pricing data show that competition to... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will lower oil prices affect monetary policy? Based on our new oil price forecasts we expect inflation in advanced economies to rise more gradually this year than previously anticipated. This will add to pressure for further policy loosening in... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Final CPI (Dec.) The fall in Russian inflation in December to 12.9% y/y provided the first clear sign that the impact of the 2014 ruble crisis has started to unwind. And we think that inflation is likely to decline... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) India’s consumer price inflation accelerated in December. While this doesn’t put the RBI’s inflation target for January 2016 under threat, it does highlight the difficult task the RBI faces in meeting... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected decline of South African manufacturing output in November suggests that GDP growth will disappoint in Q4. Worse, it seems that the hobbled manufacturing sector has not been... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) After a dire performance through much of 2015, November’s industrial productionfigures suggest no change in the manufacturing sector’s fortunes. 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) The latest BRC retail sales figures suggest that December was a reasonable, but hardly spectacular, end to a strong year for high-street spending. It appears that consumers did not exhaust their... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial rents in Milan set for steady growth The high level of industrial take-up in Italy over the past two years demonstrates the strong effect that e-commerce has had on occupier demand. With the Italian economy now on a positive, albeit... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Dec.) The weak Czech inflation figure for December, of just 0.1% y/y, reinforces our view that the National Bank will extend its commitment to keeping policy loose. We expect the MPC use the next few policy... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The pick-up in current conditions in today’s Economy Watchers Survey mostly reflects seasonal patterns. In fact, the survey still points to broadly stagnant industrial output. 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) While the modest improvement in consumer confidence in December is welcome, policymakers at the Bank of Japan should be concerned about the continued decline in household inflation expectations. 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Nov.) The fall in the current account surplus in November should be followed by a rebound around the turn of the year as the latest fall in crude oil prices has yet to fully feed through to petroleum... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
