Latin America Economics Update Assessing policy risks in Brazil Fears that Brazil’s government will respond to a deepening recession by resorting to populist economic policies have surfaced over the past week. As things stand, we don’t think there is much evidence... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More weakness for soybean prices likely in 2016 Record global harvests and stock levels, further depreciation in the currencies of key producers and subdued Chinese demand all look likely to drag the global price of soybeans lower this year. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation in December, to a 12-year high of 10.7% y/y, now means that anything less than a 50bp rate hike at this month’s COPOM meeting is likely to see financial markets... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) November’s improved trade figures are unlikely to be sufficient for the external sector to support the economy in Q4. And further ahead, the economic recovery looks set to remain reliant on domestic... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Nov.) Turkish industrial production expanded by a weaker-than-expected 3.5% y/y in November, but the data suggest that growth over Q4 as a whole was strong. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s disappointingly weak German and French industrial production figures provided further evidence that the hard data on the euro-zone economy is failing to live up to the more optimistic... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pick up in part-time earnings not enough Part-time earnings have picked up speed in recent months. But they are still rising at a slower rate than a few years ago and would have to pick up much further in order for the Bank of Japan to meet... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in 2016 – what they mean for Asia In this first Weekly of 2016, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and the region’s... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China concerns wash away New Year cheer The first week of the new year has set the tone for what we think will be another disappointing year for Australia. While we are not too concerned by the latest developments in China, there is a clear... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The marked slowdown in the annual growth rate of labour cash earnings in November was mostly due to a plunge in volatile bonus payments, whereas regular pay expanded rather solidly. However, much... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m rise in retail sales values in November shows that consumer spending maintained its momentum in the run up to the crucial Christmas shopping period. And it probably means that consumption... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Renewed worries about China look overdone Concerns about China’s economic prospects have rattled investors in the past few days. However, we think China’s economy will pick up in the coming months. Overall, the latest economic data do not... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picking up The weekend’s inflation data should provide a respite from fears that China’s economy and financial markets are collapsing. We foresee another rise in consumer price inflation, which should further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2015 laggards end year on a high December was a month of mixed fortunes for agricultural commodities in an otherwise pretty forgettable year. Indeed, the S&P GSCI agriculture index plunged 12% y/y in 2015 – the third consecutive... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
