Capital Daily Oil prices to recover, but $100 shouldn’t be seen again this decade 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in December, to 2.1% y/y, underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, we expect only modest monetary tightening in 2016... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A decade of two halves for oil prices We continue to expect the price of Brent, currently around $33 per barrel, to recover to $60 in 2017 and $70 by 2020. Nonetheless, with OPEC in disarray and China uncertainty persisting, we are... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Demand growth and transactions weaken The shortage of homes for sale continues to dominate the market. But with house prices already high, its effects are being felt more in buyer demand and transactions activity – which both moderated in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will 2016 be the year when interest rates finally rise? The fall in oil prices, a souring in global market sentiment, weaker wage data and some unfavourable revisions to GDP growth suggest that the chances of rates not rising until the second half of the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the sell-off in EM equities really justified? The latest sell-off in equity markets in the emerging world is largely due to bad communication by the People’s Bank of China. Indeed, with many emerging market (EM) economies showing some signs of... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation on the rise Inflation is likely to have risen in December on account of accelerating food inflation and the government’s incremental hiking of fuel duties even as global oil prices continue to slump. Further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 12.4% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in November was even worse than October’s 11.1% y/y decline, and adds to evidence that the economy’s recession deepened in Q4. 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to evidence that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q4, but the consumer recovery seems to be losing pace. 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update On the link between US economic, equity and credit cycles An increase in Moody’s seasoned Baa-rated US corporate bond yield preceded all seven recessions that have taken place in the US in the past fifty years. What’s more, in six of those cases, the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that activity may have eased a little from November. Even so, it looks like growth over Q4 as a whole was stronger than... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) Today’s data from the Halifax revealed a slight pick up in house price growth during December. But with house prices already high and growing much faster than wages, we expect price growth to slow... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Constrained supply may not be a panacea for alumina prices Malaysia has imposed a 3-month ban on bauxite mining and with further measures likely to follow, alumina supply could struggle in 2016. That said, demand will also be constrained by slower growth in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
