Global Markets Update Will the rally in the yen run out of steam? The yen has been the strongest of the major currencies since the end of November. Not only has Japan’s currency benefited from the recent turmoil in global financial markets, but it has also been... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will lower oil prices ever become a net positive? The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business hiring intentions warn of full-blown recession The Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter update on business intentions suggests that the economy is slipping back into recession, with shrinking investment soon to be accompanied by a downturn in... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market well placed to withstand Fed hike The housing market should be able to withstand the first rise in interest rates for nine years. Mortgage applications for home purchase in December were at their highest level in almost six years. And... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A challenging year ahead 2016 won’t be an easy year for the UK economy, given the renewed fiscal squeeze and probable EU referendum in particular. Nonetheless, we expect it to weather these clouds relatively well and... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will 2016 see a sharp correction in house prices? We believe that UK house prices are fundamentally too high. But unless the economy lapses back into recession, triggering a spike in forced selling, a real terms correction, in which prices rise more... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The weaker-than-expected Mexican industrial production growth figure for November is not something to be overly concerned about – the slowdown was due entirely to a sharp drop in construction output... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: what to expect in 2016 So far as Russia is concerned, the best that can be said for 2016 is that it should be a year in which the economy stabilises. Even a marked rebound in oil prices would be unlikely to spur a return to... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy slow but still stable despite market meltdown China’s equity markets continue to tumble, its currency is under unprecedented pressure and Chinese policymakers’ reputation for competence is looking ever more tarnished. Contrary to many of the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Dec.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil inventories declined in December for the first time since the middle of last year as production fell sharply again. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European investment activity likely to rise again in 2016 European commercial property investment is likely to have reached a new peak in 2015. But, we believe there are good grounds for expecting further growth in 2016 as new capital sources and other... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for November showed that exports remained weak. But, on a more positive note, the current account deficit continued to narrow and the figures also indicated that the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Equity price falls won’t lead to a much weaker economy While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, we don’t think that the recent sharp falls in equity prices will filter through into much weaker economic growth. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Return to growth belies headwinds to inflation There are good reasons for the Bank of Japan to feel confident about the prospects of hitting its 2% inflation target. Economic activity is on the mend, the labour market is tight, and underlying... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
