Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Two worrying signals for the US stock market The equity bears have latched on to two recent developments in the US stock market. However, we don’t see either as a signal of its impending collapse. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s fall in euro-zone industrial production added to evidence that the economy performed worse in Q4 than the surveys have implied and perhaps even failed to match Q3’s modest 0.3% expansion. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African currencies: Key calls for 2016 In this Watch we outline our key views on African currencies in 2016. First, we expect that both the Angolan kwanza and Nigerian naira will be devalued. Second, we expect that the rand will weaken... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why US natural gas prices could rise further The end of unusually warm winter weather in the US helps to explain the surge in natural gas prices since December. But we expect contracting supply, the start of LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack PMs shrug off Fed’s first rate hike Precious metals’ performances diverged in December. Gold and silver prices were broadly flat despite the Fed hiking interest rates for the first time since 2006, while platinum and palladium recovered... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s shaky start to the year a sign of things to come? A shift in market interest rate expectations, a spate of weak economic data and the looming “Brexit” vote are probably all partly to blame for sterling’s recent weakness. Although the currency looks... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Bank of Japan has eased its collateral rules to free up additional JGBs. However, a shift in the composition of government debt away from Treasury bills and loans towards JGBs is providing a... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Oil price fall further dims Malaysia’s 2016 growth outlook The renewed fall in oil prices in recent months is a further blow to Malaysia’s economy. Moreover, there is very little scope for policymakers to support growth with fiscal or monetary loosening. We... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although France’s headline inflation rate edged up in December, the big picture is that price pressures in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy remain very weak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) China’s trade data for December support our view that, despite the turmoil in Chinese financial markets, there has not been a major deterioration in its economy in recent months. Meanwhile, another... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges A recent pick-up in domestic production and a fall in imports of coal have led to suggestions that the government is on track to meet its target of doubling output by 2020. But the sector continues to... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling likely to fall further against the dollar, but not the euro After peaking in mid-November, sterling has fallen nearly 5% on a trade-weighted basis, making it the worst performing major currency bar the Canadian dollar over this period. The weakness will be... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is driving capital out of China? The recent flood of capital leaving China has been driven primarily by increased scepticism that the People’s Bank will hold to its pledge to keep the renminbi stable. The fact that the PBOC has ended... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
