China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) China’s economy is beset with a host of problems, but inflation isn’t one. Consumer price inflation remains high enough to keep concerns about deflation at bay but low enough to give policymakers... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the Bank of Canada preparing another surprise rate cut? While the majority of investors expect another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada by the middle of this year, most of them don’t realise just how weak the economy is right now and the urgency... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Poor start gives way to some more encouraging signs The prices of key industrial commodities fell further in the first full week of 2016, led by oil, as China worries resurfaced again. The markets also concluded (rightly, in our view) that the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the US economy heading for a recession? The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Employment rose by a stronger than expected 22,800 in December, but the breakdown continued to reveal disturbing trends in private sector and higher paid prime-age employment, which are more accurate... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the disappointing news keep on coming? Last year ended with some fairly downbeat news on public borrowing and economic growth. But has the news flow since then been any more encouraging? So far the answer is not particularly. The start of... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Three reasons to be positive on silver in 2016 Silver’s prospects will remain closely tied to those of gold in 2016. While Fed tightening and renewed dollar strength should continue to weigh on the prices of gold and silver over the next year or... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 292,000 surge in non-farm payroll employment, together with the 50,000 upward revision to the gains earlier months should put paid to any fears that, even if fourth-quarter GDP growth ends up... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are euro-zone consumers running out of steam? Perhaps the most notable positive surprise in the euro-zone last year was the strength of household spending. Spending looks likely to have expanded by 1.5% or more in 2015. This would be the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to stabilise in 2016 After falling below US$40 per tonne late last year, iron ore prices have edged higher more recently. Although we expect global demand to grow only moderately this year, we forecast that prices will be... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How will oil price developments affect copper? The recent slide in the oil price is weighing on the price of copper, in part because it is a reflection of negative investor sentiment towards commodities in general and China’s economy in particular... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Higher US corporate bond yields do not signal recession The performance of US corporate bonds since the end of November has been poor. For example, the average yield of seasoned issues rated Baa by Moody’s has increased nearly 10bp, extending its gain... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the renminbi? In our view, China is likely to keep its currency broadly stable in trade-weighted terms in the coming months. However, if there were a large, across-the-board devaluation of the renminbi the fallout... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why did the recovery lose momentum in 2015? UK GDP growth looks like it slowed sharply in 2015. At first glance, this appears strange considering many factors – such as energy price falls – were supportive of growth. But, it looks like these... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
