Asia Economics Update Korea to hold rates in 2016 Against a backdrop of global financial market volatility and rising household debt, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We do not expect any changes... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) The recent improvement in Australia’s labour market was maintained in December, which should go some way to relieving the current downward pressure on equity prices and the Australian dollar. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) Despite a sharp fall in machinery orders in November, we still think that the recovery in business investment remains intact. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China’s commodity imports end 2015 on a strong note China’s imports of major commodities in volume terms rose in December. Of course, low prices probably encouraged some buying, but it also seems likely that policy support, including higher... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market really heading for a crash? The S&P 500 has shown signs of stabilising after a terrible start to the year. Many expect this to be a lull in the storm. But while there are at least eight reasons to be fearful of a major... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China holds the key to regional recovery Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to cut interest rates next week We expect the Bank of Canada to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% next week, which is much sooner than most investors anticipate. The incoming data suggest that the economy... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that aggregate EM capital outflows rose to a record $270bn in the final quarter of last year, even more than during the depths of the global financial crisis. This was... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia aside, oil drop will benefit Emerging Europe The renewed slide in oil prices has been an important factor behind the latest deterioration in sentiment towards EMs over recent weeks. However, with the obvious exception of Russia, most countries... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s trade data The latest trade data are a challenge to those who believe that China’s export sector needs renminbi depreciation to compete or that China’s economy is continuing to slow. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Lots of reasons to fear a stock market crash that is unlikely to occur 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks will not provide much of a cushion in 2016 There were few significant increases in stocks last year, despite reports of oversupply in most metals markets. Indeed, stocks of many metals could be drawn down swiftly if, as we expect, supply falls... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) House price inflation rose slightly to a four-year high of 6.2% in December, from 6.1%, but the home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that this is close to the peak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Price of cerium to recover, but won’t be a showstopper Cerium is the most abundant rare earth element (REE) and one of the most widely used. We expect the rise in cerium demand to outweigh increases in supply this year and next, putting some upward... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
