UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Lenders reported rising credit availability for both commercial and residential property in the final quarter of last year. And expected demand suggests that interest in buy-to-let is holding up... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will UK equities continue to outperform in 2016? It might seem surprising that the UK stock market has outperformed its peers recently, given the ongoing pressure on commodity prices. After all, the share of firms in commodity sectors is relatively... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes & Chile holds, gradual tightening ahead The decision by Peru’s central bank to hike interest rates for a second consecutive month underlines its concerns about above-target inflation and we have brought forward our forecast for 50bp of... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to extend recovery in 2016 Although expectations for the current 2015/16 Brazilian crop have been revised higher, smaller harvests elsewhere and a receding threat of Indian exports mean that we are maintaining our forecast that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are Japan’s GDP data getting worse? Japan’s GDP figures are subject to larger revisions over time than those of any other G7 economy. The pronounced swings in Japan’s economy in recent years provide a partial explanation. But continued... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the impact of falling oil prices As India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, the continued slide in global oil prices should ensure that the improvement in the current account position is sustained. Domestically, the... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Today’s data suggest that lending to the real economy remained strong at the end of last year, which should help support economic activity in the coming months. The loose monetary stance currently... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling petrol prices offer some comfort The latest falls in equity and commodity prices have not dealt a big blow to the Australian economy, especially when lower petrol prices are boosting households’ real incomes. Nonetheless, should... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK not particularly impacted by global market turmoil The renewed concerns about growth in China, which led to a rout in Chinese equities at the start of 2016, hit financial markets worldwide, including the UK. That said, the UK has been relatively... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s Belka cautions against rate cuts Polish National Bank Governor Marek Belka used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to warn incoming MPC members that there was little to warrant looser monetary policy, but with inflation... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Commodities more likely than sterling to boost UK equities 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
