UK Economics Update Why has wage growth slowed? The latest labour market figures showed that pay growth is still weaker than it was a few months ago. Given falling unemployment and the prospect of a rebound in inflation, this should be temporary... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could Saudi Arabia spring a surprise output cut? Saudi Arabia has been willing and able to weather an extended period of low oil prices in order to squeeze out higher cost producers in the US, while perhaps also gaining some satisfaction from the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught in global markets' turmoil A downturn in China’s equity market since the start of the year and concerns about the country’s economic growth prospects reignited turmoil in global markets and dragged commodity indices lower. In... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment starts 2016 on a cold note After a poor 2015 for agriculturals, with a number seeing double-digit price falls, 2016 has started on a weak footing. While less affected by the economic cycle than other commodities, agriculturals... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could Saudi Arabia spring a surprise output cut? Saudi Arabia has been willing and able to weather an extended period of low oil prices in order to squeeze out higher cost producers in the US, while perhaps also gaining some satisfaction from the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada surprises market with no rate cut The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key policy rate at 0.50% today doesn’t mean that further rate cuts are off the table entirely. The Bank sounded far more downbeat about the economic outlook... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in the ruble mean for Russia? The latest drop in the ruble to below 80/$ creates several headaches for policymakers and means that the chances of a cut in interest rates over the next month or so, which were already slim, have now... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Safe-haven demand drives gold price higher The turmoil in global equity markets has weighed on the prices of the more industrial precious metals (PM) over the past month, with platinum and palladium recording the worst losses. In contrast... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Market turmoil not justified by economic reality Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold despite higher inflation While the Central Bank of Kenya held rates on hold today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to tighten policy by around 50bp later this year as inflation remains above target. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to take more cautious view of latest market turmoil The latest slump in commodity prices, the renewed market turmoil and the apparent slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth are all good reasons why the Fed might ultimately decide against raising... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Even with the unseasonably warm weather giving housing starts a boost in the Northeast, across the country as a whole starts dropped by a marginal 2.5% in December. While that is something of a... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov.) Although the rebound in manufacturing sales in November was stronger than most expected, it wasn’t enough to offset similar declines in the previous three months. Accordingly, manufacturing activity... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has wage growth slowed? The latest labour market figures showed that pay growth is still weaker than it was a few months ago. Given falling unemployment and the prospect of a rebound in inflation, this should be temporary... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
