Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be little changed in the US this year and will probably slow a bit in the eurozone. However, we expect activity in China to rebound in response to last year’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, while some other emerging economies should stabilise as commodity prices rebound. With inflation set to stay low for longer than previously expected, central banks will keep monetary policy ultra-loose.
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