Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil price fall dents hopes for stabilisation in Russia The latest fall in oil prices and in the ruble since the start of the year has dealt a blow to hopes that Russia’s economy would stabilise in the near future. Fiscal policy is likely to be tightened... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2015) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2015 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth picked up in Q4. This appears to be due to strengthening investment... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4 Preliminary) It always looked inevitable that Korea’s economy would lose some momentum in the final quarter of 2015, after the strong rebound in Q3. However, we expect growth to pick up again in the coming... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Virtuous cycle grinding to a halt With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, the recent strengthening of the yen and the plunge in the Nikkei are unlikely to force the Bank’s hand at next week’s meeting... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Berlin becomes Germany’s biggest investment market Berlin became Germany’s largest investment market in 2015, with investment growth of 120%, far outpacing that in the other major cities. Despite Berlin ranking far above Frankfurt in surveys of... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation to remain below 2% for longer The external deflationary pressure from the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices is persisting for longer than we expected. The lower profile for energy prices now means that headline inflation... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM assets suffer most from market turmoil The recent volatility in global financial markets has had a disproportionate impact on emerging market (EM) assets. Equities have underperformed those in the developed world, dollar-denominated bond... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan. & Q1) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for January and Q1 showed that manufacturing didn’t leave its troubles behind in 2015. But the sector’s prospects do appear a little brighter. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2015) World Steel Association (WSA) data for December show that global steel output fell in all major producing regions last month. Production was down by 2.8% in 2015 as a whole, with the pace of decline... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s German Ifo survey brought the strongest signals yet that the recent global economic concerns and associated financial market gyrations have started to hit the euro-zone’s biggest economy. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A shaky start for US LNG The sharp drop in crude oil prices has led to markedly lower Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and poses a risk to the economic rationale of US LNG exports. That said, the flexibility of US... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2015) & Activity Data (Dec.) Preliminary Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy contracted by 3.7% over 2015 as a whole, are consistent with a drop in GDP of around 3.5% y/y in Q4. Worryingly, December’s activity figures... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Market turmoil won’t prompt action The recent turmoil in financial markets will have brought a sudden end to Governor Stevens ’“chilled” Christmas period. But this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No sign of labour market fragility Evidence that China’s labour market stayed strong last year should provide some respite from concerns that the country’s economy is collapsing. China created over 13 million new urban jobs in 2015... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Dec.) The trade balance recorded another surplus in December as lower oil prices reduced import values, and a further improvement in coming months lies ahead. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
