Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose to a record level last week, driven by another drop in refinery inputs. What’s more, despite lower refinery production, there was another large jump in gasoline stocks... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Did the Fed err in raising interest rates? The renewed turmoil in global financial markets together with the downward revisions to estimates of fourth-quarter GDP growth in the US have prompted claims that the Fed made a serious policy error... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales followed in the path of existing sales by surging 10.8% in the final month of the year. But while the jump in existing sales was due to volatility caused by TRID, the rise in new home... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are lower oil prices good or bad for the world economy? This Focus addresses two of the biggest concerns which have undermined confidence in the global economy and markets this year: worries over China and the further slump in the oil price. While... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s policy reform could spell further trouble for corn prices Recent reports suggest that the Chinese government will stop supporting domestic corn producers and let the market determine prices. If implemented, this could put further downward pressure on global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit not a concern yet The pick-up in unsecured borrowing growth is starting to ring alarm bells, but we do not think that this poses a major threat – at least not yet. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Making sense of the commodities rout The latest fall in global commodity prices has hit financial markets across the whole of Latin America but the economic impact will be more dispersed. Global energy prices have seen the biggest falls... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Job creation and supply shortages support rents The recovery in rental value growth has continued to plateau. This, however, does not imply that rents are due to correct as the positive economic outlook and supply shortages should underpin rental... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How exposed is Germany to a hard landing in China? Even a very sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil drags ruble down, politics weighs on zloty The fresh leg down in oil prices has caused the ruble to tumble, making it one of the worst-performing EM currencies so far this year. Elsewhere, mounting concerns about populist policymaking in... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor An underwhelming end to a difficult year Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests growth slowed sharply at the start of 2015 and ended the year without seeing much of a recovery. That said, growth does appear to have stabilised rather than... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Baltic Dry Index a useful economic indicator? Another day, another record low for the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). However, while this measure of sea freight costs may be a helpful guide to the balance of supply and demand for certain commodities and... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) & BBA Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Nationwide recorded slower house price growth in January, while BBA mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a second consecutive month. But if many buy to let landlords rush to transact before... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) The drop in small business confidence in January partly reflects seasonal patterns, and the bigger picture is that firms remain fairly upbeat. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
