RBI Watch Policy rates unlikely to fall any further The consensus is expecting further, albeit limited, monetary easing in India over the coming months, but we continue to think that the rate-cutting cycle has come to an end. The Reserve Bank of India... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4) The rise in headline inflation in the fourth quarter of last year, to 1.7% from 1.5%, hides the more important easing in underlying inflation. On one measure, underlying inflation is now below the RBA... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Weak inflation means rates will remain low for longer Inflation across Emerging Asia remains very low, with consumer prices rising by less than 2% y/y in seven of the 14 countries we track. Two of those, Thailand and Singapore, are in deflation, while... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will higher corporate credit spreads produce a spike in property yields? In view of their strong past relationship, the latest jump in corporate bond yields could be a sign of an imminent turning point for European property markets. However, we are inclined to look through... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The increase in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence to a three-month high of 98.1 in January, from 96.3, illustrates that households are not buying into the pessimism in financial... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What does the market turmoil mean for monetary policy? The turmoil in global markets since the beginning of the year is not, in our view, a sign that the world economy is heading for a recession, but the fall in oil prices will have a knock-on effect on... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Oil prices – how low can they go? There are a number of risks which could cause oil prices to slump to as low as $20 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets battered by fresh slump in oil prices The start of 2016 has brought more of the same for financial markets in the Gulf – equity markets have fallen, bond yields have risen and speculation has continued to mount that currencies will be... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese import demand for ags slows at the end of 2015 The detailed Chinese import data for December, released earlier today, suggest that the strength of demand for agriculturals continued to ease at the end of 2015. 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s imports suggest platinum back in fashion China’s imports of palladium plunged in 2015 as stocks were drawn down, but a pick-up in car production suggests that demand should recover soon. Meanwhile, imports of platinum were up strongly on the... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Dec.) Gold imports by China and India shot up in 2015, to the highest level since 2013. We expect demand from emerging markets to remain strong in 2016, helping to underpin our positive view on prices. 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The RICS commercial property survey reported that occupier demand moderated but remained positive in the fourth quarter. Yet even if the dip in demand is sustained, supply shortages are likely to... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Solid Chinese metals imports defy negative sentiment December was the fourth consecutive month of strong Chinese metals imports. Although low prices have probably played a role, we think that robust consumption, driven by increased infrastructure... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
