Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate rise this year still quite possible At the end of another tumultuous week in global financial markets, one of the most notable developments in the UK has been the further drop in interest rate expectations. But even after the shaky... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers stalling for time amid uncertain outlook Despite a rapidly deteriorating outlook, the Bank of Canada defended its recent inaction on interest rates on the basis of it not knowing the details of the upcoming Federal budget, due to be... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Today’s Markit PMIs show manufacturing growth holding broadly steady in January, and provide no evidence of the collapse in economic activity that many seem to fear. 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown in GDP growth unlikely to be sustained Our calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.0% annualised, largely thanks to a more modest 2.0% gain in consumption. The latter is hard to square with the continued... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak, but not collapsing The latest available data show that world trade growth slowed a bit further towards the end of 2015, but they do not point to a sharp downturn. What’s more, preliminary business surveys for January... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales rebounded in style in December – recording their largest month-on-month gain since records began in 1968. The jump was due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules in early... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Wet weather doesn’t dampen outlook for spending The official UK retail sales figures once again painted a different picture of high-street spending to anecdotal and survey evidence – this time indicating a far weaker month for retail sales in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on Saudi comments and US blizzard After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices set for limited recovery We expect global coffee output to rise only slightly in 2015/16, leading to a drawdown in global stocks, which should result in stronger prices. Our forecast that the Brazilian real will remain weak... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Despite lower energy prices, the annual headline inflation rate climbed to 1.6% in December, from 1.4%, as the massive decline in the Canadian dollar continues to boost some prices. Core inflation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 2.5% y/y (from 2.1% y/y in December) was due largely to unfavourable base effects and, as a result, is unlikely to change the outlook for... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Commodities collapse triggers fresh rout Financial markets in Latin America have had a torrid start to this year. The renewed falls in commodity prices have been the main factor behind the latest falls in equities and currencies in the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cocoa price still likely to end the year lower After taking the gold medal for price gains in 2015, cocoa has quickly fallen off the podium. Supply risks could see the price rebound over the short term before ending the year lower. 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
