Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of an EM currency war looks overdone A retreat to widespread competitive currency devaluations in emerging markets would certainly be a cause for concern but, despite recent claims to the contrary, there is so far little evidence to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2015) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global output grew by just over 1% y/y in December. Excluding China, output rose by nearly 2% y/y. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (November) Jobs numbers continue to point to improving occupier demand. That said, the regional breakdown of employment is uneven and it suggests that occupier markets and rents in the North West look well... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Nov./Dec.) Today’s figures showed that strong labour market activity did not prevent a further slowdown in pay growth, suggesting that an interest rate hike is still some way off. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP breakdown suggests policy support is gaining traction The GDP data, once the impact of the swings in China's stock market are stripped out, add weight to what our China Activity Proxy has been suggesting for some time – that growth in the real economy... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower privatisation targets would boost credibility With only two months of this fiscal year remaining, the finance ministry’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks impossible to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The fall in CPI inflation to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, from 0.4% in the third quarter, could prove to be a game-changer for the RBNZ as it leaves the economy uncomfortably close to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the IMF’s latest forecasts The IMF today downgraded its forecasts for global growth this year and next, leaving them closer to our own. It also stressed that prospects for China have not deteriorated markedly in recent months... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece pass its first bailout review? There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will sovereign wealth funds heap more misery on the markets? 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Portuguese government bond spreads likely to creep higher The recent rise in Portuguese government bond yields appears to be largely due to a general increase in risk aversion, rather than factors specifically related to Portugal. However, we think that... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: central bank holds rates, damages credibility The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep its key interest rates on hold today, despite pressure on the lira and the deteriorating inflation outlook, adds to the impression that monetary policy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be worried about Sovereign Wealth Funds? The collapse in oil prices has prompted concerns that many sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) will be forced to liquidate their vast holdings of financial assets, thereby putting further pressure on market... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth steady in Q4, but set to slow sharply this year Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy was broadly stable between October and November but, with a fiscal squeeze underway, growth looks set to weaken this year. We remain... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
