Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi privatisations point to gradual adjustment to cheap oil A privatisation drive in Saudi Arabia looks increasingly likely and we estimate that the government might be able to raise between $75bn and $100bn (12-15% of GDP) from asset sales. This wouldn’t be... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we due a global recession? Suggestions that the global recovery is likely to run out of steam simply because the business cycle is now quite mature look wide of the mark. Indeed, the recoveries in most G7 economies are still in... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Warning signs from Colombia’s current account The widening of Colombia’s current account deficit in recent months is a major cause for concern and a key factor behind our below-consensus view that growth will slow further in 2016. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What are cost curves telling us about precious metals? Cost curves are a widely-used tool to determine the potential direction of commodities production and prices. Given the weakness in the latter over the last few years, cost curves are currently of... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower inflation outlook to keep the MPC on hold for a while The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today, for the 82nd month in a row, was unsurprising given the recent fall-back in the oil price and renewed market concerns about the health... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) Despite a fall in construction activity in the fourth quarter, workload balances in the commercial sector are solid. Expected work balances, which are above the survey’s average, combined with the UK... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia will only cut rates gradually Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut interest rates today should provide a long-overdue boost to the struggling economy. But the central bank will take a cautious approach from here. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate hike still likely, despite weak output data South African mining output did not contract as sharply as was predicted in November, but the weakness of the economy will still put pressure on the SARB to slow its hiking cycle. Even so, with the... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falling prime yields drive stronger demand for secondary property? We expect strong competition for prime assets to push yields lower again in 2016. With prime income yields at such low levels, this is likely to result in further growth in the demand for secondary... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in December, but the recent wave of subsidy cuts means that it is likely to edge higher over the coming months. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Clicks” fared better than “bricks” this Christmas The range of survey and anecdotal evidence out so far suggests that growth in high-street spending over the festive period as a whole was fairly reasonable. It is also clear that the gulf between... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Dec) Commercial property investment in December was subdued. This is in line with our view that the most vigorous rates of activity probably now lie behind us. However, with a benign rate outlook and... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in Bangladesh likely to be a one-off Bangladesh Bank has today cut its policy rates for the first time since 2013 to give the economy a further lift. Although the central bank has become more confident of meeting its inflation target... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in December and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further, returning to positive territory early this year. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
