Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week, driven by a drop in refinery inputs. What’s more, despite lower refinery production, there was another large jump in gasoline stocks. However, demand for oil... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities ripe for a rebound In the light of the recent turmoil we are revising our forecasts for Japan’s currency and equity prices. Nonetheless, we continue to expect a combination of better news from China, a partial recovery... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the dollar? We have reduced the amount by which we forecast the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen this year, but increased the amount by which we project that it will appreciate against sterling... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falling oil and equity prices undermine European property? Fears about China, as well as plunging oil and equity prices, have dominated the start of 2016. However, we believe that concerns over China are overstated and that oil prices will begin to recover... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to benefit from resilient demand In recent weeks, the focus of has been on the supply of metals and whether producers will cut to rebalance the markets. But in the case of zinc, lower supply almost seems inevitable. As such, it will... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will new disclosure rules drive high-end cash buyers away? Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for December suggest that overall GDP may have expanded by as much as 4% y/y in Q4 of last year. 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts in Malaysia unlikely despite SRR cut The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today to cuts its statutory reserve requirement (SRR) ratio is not a signal that interest rates cuts are on the way. Worries about currency weakness and... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates inside its new corridor Large injections of liquidity into the banking system by the People’s Bank (PBOC) have grabbed headlines today. The moves have more to do with offsetting the usual spike in liquidity demand ahead of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) December’s RICS survey recorded the first rise in homes coming onto the market in nearly a year. But buyer numbers picked up too, and stock per surveyor fell during the month, meaning that the bigger... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has deficit reduction slowed? The recent slowdown in the pace of deficit reduction seems to reflect both timing effects and a weaker economic performance than anticipated. Although progress may remain slow in the near term, we... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slowdown in bank lending to continue Today’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed that loan demand remained subdued last quarter. While the survey has not painted an accurate picture of credit conditions lately, it suggests that the recent... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Would the Gulf benefit from currency devaluation? The latest drop in oil prices has intensified speculation that the Gulf economies might abandon their dollar pegs but there remain good reasons to think that this would achieve little in terms of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bank starts contemplating more rate cuts While recent events have increased the chances that interest rates will be cut from 2.5% now to 2.0%, as we have been expecting for some time, we think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bad start to 2016 India has not been spared the sell-off in EM financial markets since the start of the year. The rupee is now at its weakest rate against the US dollar since the currency crisis of September 2013... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
