Capital Daily Will Russia and OPEC really do a deal to boost oil prices? 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The 5.1% m/m decline in durable goods was due primarily to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile aircraft component. Nevertheless, the details suggest that equipment investment shrank in the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s German CPI data revealed a slight rise in inflation following weather-related weakness in December. But while the rate is set to rise further in the months ahead, underlying inflation... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) Following December’s disappointing official retail sales figures, January’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey does not signal much of a pick-up in sales during the post-Christmas clearance period. But we... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing market recovery moved into a lower gear? There are signs that house prices are approaching the limit of what the current level of incomes and mortgage lending terms can sustainably support. As a result, we believe that the next few years... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy slowed at the start of the year. 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q4) The preliminary estimate of UK GDP in Q4 confirmed that the recovery ended last year on a slightly lacklustre note, with growth a bit below its trend rate and still driven entirely by the services... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were surprisingly strong and, on past form, point to growth of over 4% y/y at the start of 2016. These figures highlight that at... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Key challenges await Vietnam’s new leadership Vietnam’s new top leadership team, which has just been unveiled, takes the reins at a key moment for the economy. Although short-term prospects remain good, further reforms are needed for the economy... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia puts fiscal discipline ahead of growth Malaysia’s government cut its spending plans for 2016 today in response to recent declines in global oil prices. While Malaysia’s commitment to fiscal discipline is encouraging, it will come at the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) Growth in the Philippines picked up again in the fourth quarter and looks set to gain more momentum in 2016. The domestic economy is in very good health but, perhaps surprisingly given the current... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Retail sales weakened for the second straight month in December and private consumption probably dropped to levels last seen after the sales tax hike in Q4. 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ opens door to more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hint that the weakening outlook for inflation means that interest rates may have to be reduced this year from the current rate of 2.5% supports our long-held view... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed doesn't completely rule out March rate hike The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely in the FOMC statement released today, but it was notable that it was no longer willing to describe the risks to the outlook as balanced. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
