Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA feeling the heat from China slowdown While the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged the threat posed by a weaker global economy when it left interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, we don’t think it went far enough. With the outlook for... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Demand for business loans slumps The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a fairly sharp drop-off in the growth rate of loans to businesses, which suggests that investment will remain muted in the first half of this year... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI edges up January’s PMIs suggest that stabilisation in manufacturing across EMs continued at the start of the year. It’s particularly encouraging that conditions are no longer getting worse in Brazil and Russia... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil drags commodities lower, but gold shines It was a poor start to the year for commodities with the prices of energy, industrial metals and agricultural commodities all falling owing to persistent concerns about Chinese demand and continued... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Business surveys for January provide further evidence that global economic activity is holding up well in contrast to fears of a sharp downturn. Growth in China slowed early last year, but appears to... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The modest increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in January from 48.0 is somewhat encouraging but, more broadly, the manufacturing sector is still struggling to cope with the stronger dollar... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Relief rally for some commodity currencies likely to be short-lived 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has household formation stalled? The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone consumers have spent their oil windfalls The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) In net terms, banks and building societies boosted their loans to the commercial property sector in December. However, the increase in net lending applied only standing investments, not new... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in January was encouraging, particularly given that it corroborates with other leading indicators which point to (very early) signs of stabilisation... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Oil to lead a broad-based recovery Despite the rally in the oil market at the end of January, the big picture over the last few months has of course been one of further sharp falls in the prices of most industrial commodities. What's... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s household borrowing figures will not have eased mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, we do... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Despite the BBA reporting a drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase among the major high street banks last week, a stronger performance by smaller lenders meant that total approvals for house... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to cut rates to -1.0% Amid concerns about the sustainability of its large-scale asset purchases, the Bank of Japan now looks likely to rely increasingly on lowering the interest rate on central bank reserves to deliver... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) & Money and Credit (Dec.) The January Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey showed that the sector started 2016 on a slightly better footing. But with headwinds to the sector remaining, any near-term improvement is likely to be... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
